Application of Bayesian optimal experimental design to reduce parameter uncertainty in the fracture boundary of a fuel cladding tube under LOCA conditions

成川 隆文; 山口 彰*; Jang, S.*; 天谷 政樹

Proceedings of 14th International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM-14) (USB Flash Drive), 10 Pages, 2018/09

The reduction of epistemic uncertainty for safety-related events that rarely occur or require high experimental costs is a key concern for researchers worldwide. In this study, we develop a new framework to effectively reduce parameter uncertainty, which is one of the epistemic uncertainties, by using the Bayesian optimal experimental design. In the experimental design, we used a decision theory that minimizes the Bayes generalization loss. For this purpose, we used the functional variance, which is a component of widely applicable information criterion, as a decision criterion for selecting informative data points. Then, we conducted a case study to apply the proposed framework to reduce the parameter uncertainty in the fracture boundary of a non-irradiated, pre-hydrided Zircaloy-4 cladding tube specimen under loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) conditions. The results of our case study proved that the proposed framework greatly reduced the Bayes generalization loss with minimal sample size compared with the case in which experimental data were randomly obtained. Thus, the proposed framework is useful for effectively reducing the parameter uncertainty of safety-related events that rarely occur or require high experimental costs.

The Effect of oxidation and crystal phase condition on the ballooning and rupture behavior of Zircaloy-4 cladding tube-under transient-heating conditions

成川 隆文; 天谷 政樹

Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology, 53(1), p.112 - 122, 2016/01

https://doi.org/10.1080/00223131.2015.1025884

In order to investigate the effect of oxidation and crystal phase condition on the ballooning and rupture behaviors of cladding tube under simulated loss-of-coolant-accident (LOCA) conditions, laboratory-scale experiments were performed in which internally pressurized non-irradiated Zircaloy-4 (Zry-4) cladding specimens were heated to burst in steam and argon gas conditions. Values of the maximum circumferential strain were normalized by dividing them by engineering hoop stress at the time of rupture. The dependence of the normalized value on burst temperature and the relationship between the normalized value and the length, width and area of rupture opening were evaluated. The correlation between the normalized value and the burst temperature suggested that the fraction of the phase in Zry-4 cladding specimens affected the strain in the specimens and the oxidation of specimens suppressed the amount of ballooning of the specimens. The relationship between the normalized value and the length, width and area of rupture opening indicated that the length, width and area of rupture opening depended on the crystal phase condition in Zry-4 cladding specimens irrespective of atmosphere in the case of the heating rate of 3 K/s.

LOCA時内面酸化によるジルカロイ被覆管の脆化; 模擬燃料棒による内面酸化実験,1

上塚 寛; 古田 照夫; 川崎 了

JAERI-M 9445, 37 Pages, 1981/04

JAERI-M-9445.pdf:1.82MB

軽水炉のLOCA時に燃料被覆管が破裂した場合に生じる内面酸化による披覆管脆化挙動を明らかにするために、水蒸気流中で模擬燃料棒破裂・酸化実験を行った。その結果、内面酸化した燃料被覆管の脆化は被覆中に吸収された水素による水素脆化であることが明らかになった。100Cにおけるリング圧縮試験の結果、ジルカロイ被覆管は酸化温度が1000C以上の場合、吸収水素量200300w.T.Ppm以上で脆化することがわかった。酸化温度が932972Cの場合には500750w.T.Ppm以上で脆化していた。被覆中に吸収された水素はprior-結晶粒界近傍に1m以下の微細な水素化物として析出していた。破裂開口中心から軸方向に1545mm離れた位置に水素吸収のピークがあった。水素吸収のピーク位置が酸化条件の違いによって変化することから内面酸化に伴う被覆中への水素吸収は内面の雰囲気、特に水素と水蒸気の体積比(V/V)に影響されると考えられる。